August 12, 2024
July 8, 2024
Last week was shortened by the holiday and the economic data continued to decline. Financial markets responded with bonds and stocks being bid up in expectation that the Fed would be reducing interest rates soon. Interestingly, June was the first month in four years...
June 11, 2024
Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in May the US unexpectedly added a staggering 272K payrolls, which was 50% higher than the consensus forecast of 180K and 14K more than the highest Wall Street estimate (258K from Regions Bank). Wall Street really...
June 3, 2024
We don’t have any empirical evidence, but our intuition is that a survey of economists guessing forward from 2020 would have predicted financial market doom with an overnight interest rate of 5.25%-5.5% in the middle of 2024. The economy and financial markets held up...
April 29, 2024
The dichotomies in the financial world continue to manifest with several contradictions simultaneously occurring and financial commentators scratching their heads in an attempt to make sense of things. Earnings season is in full steam this week – and looking...
March 25, 2024
The financial markets in the U.S. never stray very far away from the question of what the Federal Reserve is going to do with interest rates and this week is no different. Stock and bond markets are currently pricing in the Fed not raising interest rates until the...
